OPEC Likely to Agree Production Increase Next Week, Survey Shows

Trump renews attack on OPEC ahead of group's production meeting

Question marks over global economic growth, and resulting oil demand, as well as over USA producers' capacity to pump oil at an ever faster pace make forecasting hard, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its regular monthly oil market report. The trading unit of China's biggest refiner has cut supplies from Opec's biggest producer in recent months, citing costly oil pricing by the Middle East nation.

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) representing the 24 Opec and non-Opec producing countries participating in the voluntary production adjustments will next meet in Vienna on June 21.

The OPEC warned in the report that a high degree of uncertainty was hanging over the global oil market this year.

"Our best guess is now that there will be no formal decision to change the production target, but a rather a type of agreement or understanding that compliance will be relaxed", said Johannes Benigni, chairman of JBC Energy Group in Singapore.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, settled down 1% to $75.94 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange. Prices have risen around 60 percent over the previous year. The BJP-led government in India is concerned this will jeopardize its chances in next year's general election with the opposition blaming the government for rising fuel prices.

Yet there's resistance from inside the cartel as three of its founding members - Iran, Iraq and Venezuela - argue that OPEC shouldn't submit to external pressure.

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Another scenario being discussed is for producers to ease the level of cutbacks to 100 percent of the agreed level from around 150 percent now, to fill any supply gap from Venezuela and Iran, should oil get close to $80, the sources said. "The rising crude prices have gone above the sustainability threshold causing undue hardship for the developing economies", he said in another tweet.

Official US production and inventory data is due to be published on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Another issue raised by Pradhan was the "Asian Premium" - or a higher price - charged by West Asian oil exporters for shipments to Asian buyers, as opposed to Europe.

"To make up for the losses, we estimate that Middle East OPEC countries could increase production in fairly short order by about 1.1 mb/d and there could be more output from Russian Federation on top of the increase already built into our 2019 non-OPEC supply numbers", it added.

Citing "people briefed on the discussions", Bloomberg on Wednesday said Saudi Arabia had floated several oil output hike plans to fellow cartel members.

Saudi Arabia has told OPEC that it increased oil output to a little more than 10 million bpd in May, up from 9.9 million bpd in April.

Kuwait's output dropped to 2.7 million bpd in May from 2.705 million bpd in April while Ecuador recorded a decrease of 1,000 bpd to 516,000 bpd in May.

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